Semiconductors are not one market. They are an interdependent stack of design software, intellectual property, manufacturing, equipment, materials, packaging and end demand.

Map the bottlenecks

flowchart TB
    A[EDA and IP] --> B[Chip design]
    B --> C[Wafer fabrication]
    D[Equipment and materials] --> C
    C --> E[Advanced packaging]
    E --> F[Cloud · Edge · Devices]

The most attractive business is not always the one with the loudest product launch. Long-term research asks where technical difficulty, switching costs, capital intensity and ecosystem lock-in create durable bottlenecks.

Research questions

  • Which layer captures value when compute demand grows?
  • Where does capacity take years rather than quarters to add?
  • Which tools are deeply embedded in customers’ workflows?
  • What breaks the thesis: substitution, geopolitics, cyclicality or valuation?

This journal records a research process, not financial advice. A good thesis must include the conditions under which it is wrong.